According to the relationships among state transition probability matrixes with different step lengths, an improved Markov chain model based on autocorrelation and entropy techniques was introduced. In the improved Markov chain model, the state transition probability matrixes can be adjusted. The steps of the historical state of the event, which was significantly related to the future state of the event, were determined by the autocorrelation technique, and the impact weights of the event historical state on the event future state were determined by the entropy technique. The presented model was applied to predicting annual precipitation and annual runoff states, showing that the improved model is of higher precision than those existing Markov chain models, and the determination of the state transition probability matrixes and the weights is more reasonable. The physical concepts of the improved model are distinct, and its computation process is simple and direct, thus, the presented model is sufficiently general to be applicable to the prediction problems in hydrology and water resources.
In this paper,a new model with a total amount control target of allowable water withdrawal based on initial water right is built for the implementation of initial water right allocation scheme as well as unified allocation for allowable water withdrawal and sewage discharge.The model couples the water allocation simulation model and the computational model of permissible pol-lution bearing capacity.In view of the model complexity,a new technology which synthesizes system simulation,iterative reservoir turns and intelligent computation is proposed to improve the operability of allocation scheme and computational efficiency.Taking the Beijiang River Basin in the Pearl River Basin as an example,the study explains the model establishment,solution and application,and draws an optimized operation graph of large-scale reservoirs.The study also obtains a long-term operation strategy of river basin water resources system,the allocation schemes of allowable water withdrawal and sewage discharge in a typical year and the flow hydrographs of trans-boundary sections.The validity of the model and the allocation rationality are analyzed as well.
HU SiYi1,2,WANG ZongZhi1,WANG YinTang1 & ZHANG LingLing3 1 State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering,Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute,Nanjing 210029,China
