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国家自然科学基金(40901023)

作品数:7 被引量:74H指数:5
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集成统计仿真技术和SCE-UA方法的水文模型参数优化被引量:5
2012年
水文模型参数优化是模型应用和发展过程中的一个的重要环节,然而如何快速有效地估计模型参数成为当前分布式水文模型发展的一个瓶颈.针对传统方法在多参数复杂水文模型的应用不足,提出一种集成统计仿真技术和SCE-UA方法的优化方案,即采用非参数的多元自适应回归样条建立复杂水文模型的代理仿真模型进行初始优化,缩小参数优选范围,再结合全局优化算法SCE-UA方法进行参数全局优化,从而提高模型优化效率.选用淮河流域的日尺度分布式时变增益水文模型进行实例研究,采用水量平衡系数(WB)和Nash-Sutcliffe效率系数(NS)两个目标函数综合评价模拟效果.通过模型检验结果表明该方法可以实现参数的高效优化分析,且具有很好的稳健性和适应性,说明方法是有效的.
宋晓猛占车生夏军
关键词:参数优化淮河流域
基于统计理论方法的水文模型参数敏感性分析被引量:37
2012年
参数敏感性分析是模型不确定性量化的重要环节,有助于有效识别关键参数,减少参数的不确定性影响,进而提高参数优化效率。利用Morris筛选方法定性识别相对重要参数,耦合方差分解的Sobol方法和统计理论的响应曲面模型构建一种新的定量敏感性分析方法———RSMSobol方法。以长江支流沿渡河流域的日降雨径流过程模拟为例,系统分析4种不同目标函数响应条件下新安江模型的参数敏感性。结果表明Morris方法和RSMSobol方法的集成应用极大地提高了全局敏感性分析的效率,Morris定性筛选结果为定量评估减少了模型参数维数,采用代理模型技术的RSMSobol方法减少了模型的计算消耗。
宋晓猛孔凡哲占车生韩继伟
关键词:新安江模型
台湾地区蒸散发的遥感估算与时空分析被引量:10
2011年
在地表能量平衡系统(SEBS)基础上,改进了SEBS的地表动量粗糙度、零平面位移及植被高度等参数化方案,并建立适合台湾地区的气温和地表温度相关性模型,构建了改良的定量遥感蒸散模型SEBS-China。选取台湾地区2002年和2003年4季各一晴空代表日,利用MODIS数据模拟了日均实际蒸散发。模拟结果较实测蒸发皿蒸发量偏小,与实际规律相符。分析模拟结果表明:台湾地区的太阳净辐射量、蒸发比和地表蒸散发量在时间分布上呈现出变化分明的年内分布规律:夏秋季比春冬季高,其中7月最大、1月最小。时间上,2002年4个代表日的模拟值普遍高于2003年的4个代表日。在空间上,高值区位于中部山区,并向东西两侧逐渐降低到沿海地区又略有回升。不同土地覆被类型的平均蒸散发量由大到小依次为森林、草地、水体、裸地、城镇建设用地;各行政区陆面蒸散发分布呈现城市明显低于区县的规律。
占车生李玲王会肖赵洁
关键词:定量遥感
Quantitative estimation of land surface evapotranspiration in Taiwan based on MODIS data
2011年
Land surface evapotranspiration (ET) determines the local and regional water-heat balances. Accurate estimation of regional surface ET provides a scientific basis for the formulation and implementation of water conservation programs. This study set up a table of the momentum roughness length and zero-plane displacement related with land cover and an empirical relationship between land surface temperature and air temperature. A revised quantitative remote sensing ET model, the SEBS-Taiwan model, was developed. Based on Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data, SEBS-Taiwan was used to simulate and evaluate the typical actual daily ET values in different seasons of 2002 and 2003 in Taiwan. SEBS-Taiwan generally performed well and could accurately simulate the actual daily ET. The simulated daily ET values matched the observed values satisfactorily. The results indicate that the net regional solar radiation, evaporation ratio, and surface ET values for the whole area of Taiwan are larger in summer than in spring, and larger in autumn than in winter. The results also show that the regional average daily ET values of 2002 are a little higher than those of 2003. Through analysis of the ET values from different types of land cover, we found that forest has the largest ET value, while water areas, bare land, and urban areas have the lowest ET values. Generally, the Northern Taiwan Region, including Ilan County, Nantou County, and Hualien County, has higher ET values, while other cities, such as Chiayi, Taichung, and Tainan, have lower ET values.
Che-sheng ZHANJie ZHAOHui-xiao WANGJian YIN
关键词:MODIS数据中分辨率成像光谱仪蒸散SEBS
Integration of a statistical emulator approach with the SCE-UA method for parameter optimization of a hydrological model被引量:13
2012年
Parameter optimization of a hydrological model is an indispensable process within model development and application.The lack of knowledge regarding the efficient optimization of model parameters often results in a bottle-neck within the modeling process,resulting in the effective calibration and validation of distributed hydrological models being more difficult to achieve.The classical approaches to global parameter optimization are usually characterized by being time consuming,and having a high computation cost.For this reason,an integrated approach coupling a meta-modeling approach with the SCE-UA method was proposed,and applied within this study to optimize hydrological model parameter estimation.Meta-modeling was used to determine the optimization range for all parameters,following which the SCE-UA method was applied to achieve global parameter optimization.The multivariate regression adaptive splines method was used to construct the response surface as a surrogate model to a complex hydrological model.In this study,the daily distributed time-variant gain model(DTVGM) applied to the Huaihe River Basin,China,was chosen as a case study.The integrated objective function based on the water balance coefficient and the Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient was used to evaluate the model performance.The case study shows that the integrated method can efficiently complete the multi-parameter optimization process,and also demonstrates that the method is a powerful tool for efficient parameter optimization.
SONG XiaoMengZHAN CheShengXIA Jun
关键词:分布式水文模型参数优化方法模拟器
LUCC and its impact on run-off yield in the Bai River catchment—upstream of the Miyun Reservoir basin被引量:12
2011年
Aims The Miyun Reservoir is the most important drinking water source for Beijing—the capital of China with a population of more than 16 million.Since the 1980s,the inflow to the reservoir has been decreasing,which seriously threatens the security of water use in Beijing.Our goal was to analyze the impact of land use and cover change(LUCC)on run-off yield in the upstream of the Miyun Reservoir.Methods In this study,the Soil andWater Assessment Tool(SWAT)was used to simulate the impacts of LUCC on the run-off yield in the Bai River catchment—upstream of the Miyun Reservoir basin in northern China.The investigation was conducted using two 6-year historical streamflow records:from 1986 to 1991 and from 2000 to 2005.A split sample procedure was used for model calibration and validation.The data from 1986 to 1988 and from 2000 to 2002 were used for calibration,while those from 1989 to 1991 and from 2003 to 2005 for validation.The SWAT calibration was based on monthly measured discharge at Zhangjiafen station at the catchment outlet from Bai River catchment.Additionally,the influence of LUCC on the surface run-off was distinguished from that of climate change on the surface runoff through SWAT scenarios modeling,the twoway analysis of variance(ANOVA),and the rainfall–run-off double-mass analysis in the Bai River catchment.Important Findings We found that the SWAT model could be used successfully to accurately simulate run-off yield and different LUCC patterns affecting water quantity in this catchment.During calibraion for the two periods the simulated monthly run-off satisfactorily matched the observed values,with the Nash–Sutcliffe coefficient>0.9 and 0.7 and a coefficient of determination of 0.9 and 0.65 at the outlet station(Zhangjiafen station),while during validation for the two periods the obtained values were 0.85,0.65 and 0.9,0.65,respectively.During the period of 1986–91,both the SWAT scenarios modeling and the analysis of the two-way ANOVA method showed that LUCC and climate change had some impact o
Chesheng ZhanZongxue XuAizhong YeHongbo Su
关键词:LUCCRUN-OFFSWAT
沙河流域地表通量的定量遥感估算被引量:2
2012年
地表通量遥感估算对植物长势监测、灾害监测和地区能量水循环研究具有重要的现实意义.本文选取北京市沙河流域2002-10-16和2003-04-07LandSat TM影像反演研究区春秋季地表特征参数和地表通量,结合地面观测资料,利用二层遥感模型对该地区的植被、土壤地表通量分别进行了遥感估算.结果表明,研究区地表能量平衡各分量具有明显的时空特征.春、秋季晴日植被通量和土壤通量的估算结果空间分布态势保持一致,植被通量略大于土壤分量,土壤通量的空间分异性更明显.
尹剑王会肖占车生牛存稳高军
关键词:地表通量遥感资料
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