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作品数:12 被引量:114H指数:6
相关作者:李茜魏凤英李栋梁赵平王园香更多>>
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近159年东亚夏季风年代际变化与中国东部旱涝分布被引量:20
2011年
利用1850-2008年我国东部地区90个测站的旱涝等级和北半球夏季海平面气压格点等资料,使用BP典型相关等方法,分析了近159年旱涝等级与东亚夏季海平面气压的耦合相关关系。利用关键区域的海平面气压资料,定义出与我国东部旱涝分布有密切联系的东亚夏季风指数,在此基础上分析了东亚夏季风年代际变化对我国东部旱涝分布的影响。结果表明:(1)近159年中国东部旱涝具有4种典型空间分布型,即华南与中国东部其他地区旱涝趋势相反型、黄淮地区与长江流域及其以南旱涝趋势相反型、江淮流域与中国东部其他地区旱涝趋势相反型和中国东部与西部旱涝趋势相反型。近159年东亚夏季海平面气压场主要呈现亚洲大陆与西太平洋海平面气压强弱相反的分布特征;(2)本文定义的夏季风指数的年代际变化与我国东部旱涝典型分布型的年代际变化有密切关系,但两者的相关关系并不是稳定不变的,存在显著的年代际位相差异,即20世纪20年代之前,当东亚夏季风偏强(弱)时,长江流域以北容易偏旱(偏涝),长江流域及其以南容易偏涝(偏旱),20世纪20年代以后,当东亚夏季风偏强(弱)时,长江流域以北容易偏涝(偏旱),长江流域及其以南容易偏旱(偏涝)。可见,使用较长年代资料进行考察,研究结论丰富了大多数使用近50-60年资料的研究结果。东亚夏季风与我国东部旱涝分布之间关系的年代际位相差异,可能与东亚夏季风对太阳活动等外强迫的非线性反馈相联系。
李茜魏凤英李栋梁
关键词:旱涝分布年代际变化
2650年东亚-北印度洋热力差异与东亚夏季风变化
2011年
利用观测资料研究发现,东亚-北印度洋对流层热力差异指数(East Asian-North Indian Ocean index,IEANI)与东亚夏季风及相应的中国东部季风降水都具有密切的关系.当IEANI偏高(低)时,东亚中纬度夏季风偏强(弱),华北地区降水偏多(少),江南地区降水偏少(多).为了研究东亚夏季风的长期变化特征,我们利用北京和澳大利亚塔斯曼尼亚地区的重建气温回归了BC665~AD1985年的IEANI.研究发现,在过去2000多年里,重建的IEANI总体上能够指示世纪尺度上的东亚夏季风变化和中国东部降水异常.重建的IEANI与中国东部降水的关系与现代气候所表现出来的关系非常相似,表明这种相关特征也出现在过去2000多年来的世纪尺度上.对于IEANI在更长时间尺度(数百至千年)上的变化特征及其与降水的关系,尚需利用更多类型的代用资料进一步验证.
刘舸赵平周秀骥
关键词:热力差异降水
近千年东亚夏季风演变被引量:7
2012年
在分析东亚地区夏季海平面气压场与中国东部6区域干湿指数关系的基础上,重建了公元960—2000年近千年东亚地区夏季海平面气压场的格点资料,并对重建效果进行了检验。同时,依据重建的海平面气压场资料定义了近千年东亚夏季风强度指数,探讨了近千年东亚夏季风的变化特征。结果表明:(1)重建的近千年东亚地区的海平面气压场具有一定的可信度,它为研究更长时间尺度的东亚夏季风变化特征提供了基础;(2)东亚夏季风指数存在60~70 a、30~40 a、10~20 a的显著周期变化;(3)近千年东亚夏季风的强度指数主要经历过9次明显的趋势突变。其中,13世纪30年代东亚夏季风的强度指数经历了最显著的振动。
李茜魏凤英李栋梁
关键词:海平面气压场气候变化
近159年东亚夏季风年代际变化与中国东部旱涝分布
利用1850-2008年我国东部地区90个测站的旱涝等级和北半球夏季海平面气压格点等资料,使用BP典型相关等方法,分析了近159年旱涝等级与东亚夏季海平面气压的耦合相关关系。利用关键区域的海平面气压资料,定义出与我国东部...
李茜魏凤英李栋梁
关键词:旱涝分布年代际变化
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An Integrated Analysis of Dry-Wet Variability in Western China for the Last 4-5 Centuries被引量:1
2009年
The dry-wet variability in western China and its spatiotemporal structure during the last 4-5 centuries was examined using 24 climate proxies from sediments, ice cores, historical documents, and tree rings. Spatial patterns and temporal evolutions of dryness and wetness were not only extracted from the proxy data using rotated empirical orthogonal function (REOF) analysis for the last 4 centuries, but also for instrumental data in the last 40 years. The leading five REOF modes indicate that 5 dry-wet variation centers exist in western China. Moreover, long-term variability in dryness and wetness is seen on long (centennial) to short (inter-decadal) timescales. An out-of-phase relationship for the inter-decadal variation was observed between the Hetao-upper Yangtze River region and north Xinjiang, indicating influences on dry-wet variations of the East Asian summer monsoon and the westerly winds over the two regions, respectively. A particularly long dry spell was found in the central Tibetan Plateau in the 19th century. A predominance of wet decades in the last 4 centuries was found in the arid and Hetao regions. Three regional dry-wet series with annual resolution in north Xinjiang, the upper Yellow River valley, and the Hetao area were constructed for analyses of the last 500 years. Dry-wet oscillations with periodicities of 16, 50, and 150 years in north Xinjiang, 50 years in the upper Yellow River valley, and 70-80 years in the Hetao region were identified by wavelet analysis. In general, these periods correspond to large-scale oscillations found in the climate system, are mainly related to ocean-atmosphere interaction.
钱维宏林祥
Characteristics of decadal-centennial-scale changes in East Asian summer monsoon circulation and precipitation during the Medieval Warm Period and Little Ice Age and in the present day被引量:34
2011年
Using meteorological observations, proxies of precipitation and temperature, and climate simulation outputs, we synthetically analyzed the regularities of decadal-centennial-scale changes in the summer thermal contrast between land and ocean and summer precipitation over the East Asian monsoon region during the past millennium; compared the basic characteristics of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) circulation and precipitation in the present day, the Little Ice Age (LIA) and the Medieval Warm Period (MWP); and explored their links with solar irradiance and global climate change. The results indicate that over the last 150 years, the EASM circulation and precipitation, indicated by the temperature contrast between the East Asian mainland and adjacent oceans, had a significant decadal perturbation and have been weaker during the period of rapid global warming over the past 50 years. On the centennial time scale, the EASM in the MWP was strongest over the past 1000 years. Over the past 1000 years, the EASM was weakest in 1450-1570. When the EASM circulation was weaker, the monsoon rain belt over eastern China was generally located more southward, with there being less precipitation in North China and more precipitation in the Yangtze River valley; therefore, there was an anomalous pattern of southern flood/northern drought. From the 1900s to 1920s, precipitation had a pat- tern opposite to that of the southern flood/northern drought, with there being less precipitation in the Yangtze River valley and more precipitation in North China. Compared with the case for the MWP, there was a longer-time-scale southern flood/northern drought phenomenon in 1400-1600. Moreover, the EASM circulation and precipitation did not synchronously vary with the trend of global temperature. During the last 150 years, although the annual mean surface temperature around the world and in China has increased, the EASM circulation and precipitation did not have strengthening or weakening trends. Over the past 1000 years, the weakest EASM oc
ZHOU XiuJiZHAO PingLIU GeZHOU TianJun
关键词:夏季风环流东亚季风区中世纪暖期
Decadal-centennial-scale change in Asian-Pacific summer thermal contrast and solar activity被引量:9
2011年
To study the temporally varying features of summer thermal contrast between the Asian continent and the adjacent ocean on decadal-centennial time scales and the links between thermal contrast and solar irradiance, we used a time series of the reconstructed Asian-Pacific oscillation index and solar irradiance over the past millennium. The results showed that thermal contrast in the Asian monsoon region has quasi-90-year, 10-13-year, and 3-7-year periods. On the centennial time scale, thermal contrast showed three abrupt changes, occurring in 1305-1315, 1420-1430, and 1625-1635. There is a significant positive correlation between thermal contrast and solar irradiance, which is particularly strong at 250-year, 120-160-year, 60-70-year, and quasi-15-year periods. The three abrupt changes in thermal contrast corresponded to a significantly weakening or strengthening of solar irradiance, lagging 12-22 years behind the solar irradiance, which possibly reflects an effect of solar irradiance on the abrupt change in Asian monsoon climate on the centennial time scale. On the decadal time scale, the abrupt change in the thermal contrast was not closely associated with solar irradiance, which implies that solar activity may not be a major factor affecting the decadal abrupt change in Asian-Pacific thermal contrast. Relative to thermal contrast, the decadal abrupt change in Northern Hemispheric annual mean surface temperature is more closely associated with solar activity, while its centennial abrupt change has a weaker relationship with solar
ZHAO PingZHOU XiuJiLIU Ge
关键词:年代际夏季热
Reconstructed index of summer monsoon dry-wet modes in East Asia for the last millennium被引量:6
2011年
Monthly precipitation datasets collected at 160 stations in China as well as the monthly winds and humidity data derived from the US National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) were used to construct the relationship between six summer dry-wet modes in eastern China and the summer monsoon airflow northward advance in East Asia. A millennial series of the monsoon dry-wet index (MDWI) was reconstructed based on Wang's six summer dry-wet modes in eastern China since 950 AD. A high (low) index indicates that the strong (weak) East Asian summer monsoon airflow can reach northern (southern) China and cause above (below) normal precipitation. Interdecadal periodic variations, such as the approximate 70-year oscillation, can be found in the MDWI series. In the last millennium, northern China has experienced persistent decadal wet periods and persistent decadal dry periods. At present, the MDWI is a low period on the interdecadal time scale so above-normal precipitation is observed in southern China and below-normal precipitation in northern China.
QIAN WeiHong ZHU YaFen TANG ShuaiQi
关键词:夏季季风干湿指数月降水量
Modeling impacts of East Asian Ocean-Land thermal contrast on spring southwesterly winds and rainfall in eastern China被引量:5
2009年
Using the National Centers for Environmental Prediction–National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP–NCAR) reanalysis dataset, the NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center’s merged analysis of precipitation, and the MM5v3 Meso-scale Model, the impacts of surface temperature differences between the East Asian land and its adjacent oceans on spring southwesterly winds and rainfall over eastern China are studied. The modeling results show that the temperature differences exert strong influence on the occurrence of the southwesterly winds and rainfall over southern China and their northward advances. When surface temperature increases over the land and decreases over the oceans, the temperature gradient with a winter feature earlier changes toward the gradient with a summer feature. Both the low-pressure system east of the Tibetan Plateau and the subtropical high-pressure system over the western Pacific strengthen, accompanying with the strengthening of the lower-tropospheric southwesterly winds over eastern China. Accordingly, the upward motion increases over the Yangtze-Huaihe River (YHR) valleys and decreases over southern China, leading to an increase of spring rainfall over the YHR valleys and a decrease over southern China. Thus, the rain belt over eastern China appears over the YHR valleys but not over southern China. Under a weaker condition of the spring thermal contrast, the rain belt does not occur over eastern China. When the spring thermal contrast pronouncedly strengthens, the rain belt over southern China may advance northward into the YHR valleys during spring, though there is no onset of the tropical monsoon over the South China Sea. This forms a rain belt similar to that of the YHR valleys during the summer Meiyu period.
ZHAO PingJIANG PinPingZHOU XiuJiZHU CongWen
近540a东亚夏季海平面气压场的重建及其与数值模拟的比较被引量:3
2012年
基于中国东部地区旱涝分布和东亚夏季海平面气压存在密切关系的基础上,利用1470—2008年中国东部地区旱涝等级资料、1850—2008年东亚夏季海平面气压资料,运用主成分回归的方法重建了1470—2008年的东亚地区夏季海平面气压场,并对重建结果进行了检验,同时对1470—2008年东亚夏季海平面气压重建场和FGOALS_gl数值模式模拟的海平面气压场进行了对比分析。结果表明:①1850—2008年重建的东亚夏季海平面气压场在东亚夏季风关键区(中国内陆地区以及西北太平洋部分地区)重建效果相对于其他地区要好。②1470—2008年重建的东亚夏季海平面气压场主要存在高纬与中纬气压差异、海洋与陆地差异的两种空间分布型;1470—1999年FGOALS_gl数值模拟的东亚夏季海平面气压主要体现了海陆气压差异。③根据重建的东亚夏季海平面气压场定义的1470—2008年东亚夏季风指数的演变具有明显的阶段性,16世纪中期到17世纪初东亚夏季风偏强,17世纪偏弱,18世纪经历了"弱-强-弱-强-弱"的变化,19世纪则是"强-弱-强-弱"的变化,20世纪是明显的"弱-强-弱"变化。而1470—1999年数值模拟的东亚夏季风指数序列与重建序列的主要差异出现在16世纪末和18世纪末,两者的变化趋势相反,其他时段的变化趋势基本一致。
李茜魏凤英李栋梁
关键词:海平面气压数值模拟
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