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国家自然科学基金(40810059003)

作品数:10 被引量:178H指数:7
相关作者:符淙斌郭维栋冯锦明刘永和严中伟更多>>
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发文基金:国家自然科学基金国家重点基础研究发展计划淮河流域气象开放研究基金更多>>
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Spatial and Quantitative Comparison of Satellite-Derived Land Cover Products over China被引量:5
2012年
Because land cover plays an important role in global climate change studies, assessing the agreemen among different land cover products is critical. Significan discrepancies have been reported among satellite-derived land cover products, especially at the regional scale. Different classification schemes are a key obstacle to the comparison of products and are considered the main factor behind the disagreement among the different products Using a feature-based overlap metric, we investigated the degree of spatial agreement and quantified the overall and class-specific agreement among the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectoradiometer (MODIS), Global Land Cover 2000 (GLC2000), and the National Land Cover/Use Data-sets (NLCD) products, and the author assessed the products by ground reference data at the regional scale over China. The areas with a low degree of agreement mostly occurred in heterogeneous terrain and transition zones while the areas with a high degree of agreement occurred in major plains and areas with homogeneous vegetation The overall agreement of the MODIS and GLC2000 products was 50.8% and 52.9%, and the overall accuracy was 50.3% and 41.9%, respectively. Class-specific agreement or accuracy varied significantly. The high-agreemen classes are water, grassland, cropland, snow and ice, and bare areas, whereas classes with low agreement are shru-bland and wetland in both MODIS and GLC2000. These characteristics of spatial patterns and quantitative agreement could be partly explained by the complex landscapes mixed vegetation, low separability of spectro-temporal-texture signals, and coarse pixels. The differences of class definition among different the classification schemes also affects the agreement. Each product had its advantages and limitations, but neither the overall accuracy nor the class-specific accuracy could meet the requirements of climate modeling.
GAO HaoJIA Gen-Suo
关键词:MODIS全球气候变化
全球变暖背景下不同空间尺度降水谱的变化被引量:21
2013年
利用477个地面观测站上的日降水数据分析了中国整个降水强度谱在1961~2008年的长期变化特征.结果发现,毛毛雨整体呈现出空间一致的减少趋势,但不同区域的减少幅度存在明显差异.有观测记录的可测降水则表现出显著地季节性和区域性特征.秋季,可测降水部分在98°E以东的我国东部地区普遍减少,而夏季和冬季,在我国东部的南方地区,小雨减少而大雨呈现增加的趋势.在我国西部地区,可测降水在4个不同季节都是有所增加的.合成分析的结果显示全球尺度上气温和降水之间存在着准线性关系.不同强度的降水对全球性增暖的响应有所不同,表现为降水谱由小雨向强度较大的降水方向发生偏移.与海洋上的降水相比,陆地上的降水由于受到水汽条件的约束,变化幅度要相对偏小.另外,与全球尺度上的降水相比,区域降水随全球性增暖的变化表现出更大的不确定性,这很可能是由于局地复杂的地形和下垫面覆盖以及人类活动影响等因素所造成的.
吴福婷符淙斌
关键词:全球增暖极端降水
气象资料的统计降尺度方法综述被引量:60
2011年
统计降尺度是解决由气象模式输出的低分辨率资料到流域尺度资料转换的手段之一,已成为一个重要的研究领域。统计降尺度方法十分丰富,分为传递函数法、天气形势法和天气发生器3类,3类之间并无严格的界限。统计降尺度涉及到时间与空间降尺度、随机型与确定型降尺度、时间自相关与空间相关性以及面向格点与面向站点的降尺度这4个方面的属性与分类问题,各种具体方法在这些方面的表现有所不同。近年来,相似法、隐马尓可夫模型、广义线性模型、Poisson点过程以及乘性瀑布过程获得了较大的发展和应用,并诞生了各种非线性模型以及物理—统计模型等新方法,已有一些影响较大的统计降尺度模型软件。新的方法在不断涌现,其中非线性模型、气候情境随机模拟技术、短期预报资料降尺度技术以及结合物理机理的统计降尺度方法是未来的主要发展趋势。
刘永和郭维栋冯锦明张可欣
关键词:统计降尺度天气发生器传递函数非线性模型
A New Approach for Parameter Optimization in Land Surface Model被引量:2
2011年
In this study,a new parameter optimization method was used to investigate the expansion of conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation (CNOP) in a land surface model (LSM) using long-term enhanced field observations at Tongyu station in Jilin Province,China,combined with a sophisticated LSM (common land model,CoLM).Tongyu station is a reference site of the international Coordinated Energy and Water Cycle Observations Project (CEOP) that has studied semiarid regions that have undergone desertification,salination,and degradation since late 1960s.In this study,three key land-surface parameters,namely,soil color,proportion of sand or clay in soil,and leaf-area index were chosen as parameters to be optimized.Our study comprised three experiments:First,a single-parameter optimization was performed,while the second and third experiments performed triple-and six-parameter optimizations,respectively.Notable improvements in simulating sensible heat flux (SH),latent heat flux (LH),soil temperature (TS),and moisture (MS) at shallow layers were achieved using the optimized parameters.The multiple-parameter optimization experiments performed better than the single-parameter experminent.All results demonstrate that the CNOP method can be used to optimize expanded parameters in an LSM.Moreover,clear mathematical meaning,simple design structure,and rapid computability give this method great potential for further application to parameter optimization in LSMs.
李红祺郭维栋孙国栋张耀存符淙斌
关键词:参数优化方法面模型陆面过程模式土壤温度半干旱地区叶面积指数
1960~2008年中国二十四节气气候变化被引量:55
2011年
采用非平稳时间序列分析技术——集合经验模分解(EEMD)方法,基于1960~2008年中国549站近地面气温观测的均一化序列,确定了全国平均温度的二十四个气候节气的阈值温度和时间,分析了各节气平均温度及其在季节循环中的时间节点的演变趋势.全国平均而言,小寒、大寒天气减少,近10年(1998~2007年)达到大寒的天数比20世纪60年代减少56.8%;大暑天气增多,近10年达到大暑的天数比20世纪60年代增加81.4%;季节性升温阶段的气候节气显著提前6d以上,其中雨水节气提前最多,达15d;而季节性降温阶段的气候节气则都显著推迟5~6d.这主要是由于在变暖的大背景下整个季节循环趋于整体抬升所致,但在二十四节气中,位于春季位相者的增温趋势普遍大于位于秋季位相者.其中雨水、立春、惊蛰节气的增温最快,全国平均在1961~2007年间分别增暖了2.43,2.37和2.21℃.惊蛰、清明、小满和芒种这4个反映物候的气候节气在全国各地普遍提前,尤其在北方半干旱区均显著提前,分别达12~16,4~8,4~8和8~12d.这些定量化的节气气候变化分析结果,可为适应气候变化、适时调整相应农事活动和节能措施等提供决策依据.
钱诚严中伟符淙斌
关键词:二十四节气气候变化
A Case Study of a Typical Dust Storm Event over the Loess Plateau of Northwest China
2011年
Enhanced observational meteorological elements,energy fluxes,and the concentration of dust aerosols collected from the Semi-Arid Climate Observatory and Laboratory(SACOL) during a typical dust storm period in March 2010 at Lanzhou were used in this paper to investigate the impact of dust aerosols on near surface atmospheric variables and energy budgets.The results show that the entire dust storm event was associated with high wind velocities and decreasing air pressure,and the air changed from cold and wet to warm and dry and then recovered to its initial state.The response of energy fluxes occurred behind meteorological elements.At high dust concentration periods,the net radiation was significantly less in the daytime and higher at night,while the heat fluxes displayed the same trend,indicating the weakening of the land-atmosphere energy exchange.The results can be used to provide verification for numerical model results in semi-arid areas.
LING Xiao-LuGUO Wei-DongZHAO Qian-FeiZHANG Bei-Dou
关键词:西北黄土高原能量通量气候观测
Climatic changes in the Twenty-four Solar Terms during 1960-2008被引量:8
2012年
The temperature thresholds and timings of the 24 climatic Solar Terms in China are determined from a homogenized dataset of the surface air temperature recorded at 549 meteorological stations for the period 1960-2008 employing the ensemble empirical mode decomposition method.Changes in the mean temperature and timing of the climatic solar terms are illustrated.The results show that in terms of the mean situation over China,the number of cold days such as those of Slight Cold and Great Cold has decreased,especially by 56.8% for Great Cold in the last 10 years(1998-2007) compared with in the 1960s.The number of hot days like those of Great Heat has increased by 81.4% in the last 10 years compared with in the 1960s.The timings of the climatic Solar Terms during the warming period(around spring) in the seasonal cycle have advanced significantly by more than 6 d,especially by 15 d for Rain Water,while those during the cooling period(around autumn) have delayed significantly by 5-6 d.These characteristics are mainly due to a warming shift of the whole seasonal cycle under global warming.However,the warming shift affects the different Solar Terms to various extents,more prominently in the spring than in the autumn.The warming tendencies for Rain Water,the Beginning of Spring,and the Waking of Insects are the largest,2.43?C,2.37?C,and 2.21?C,respectively,for the period 1961-2007 in China as a whole.Four particular phenology-related climatic Solar Terms,namely the Waking of Insects,Pure Brightness,Grain Full,and Grain in Ear,are found to have advanced almost everywhere.In semi-arid zones in northern China,advances of the timings of these four climatic Solar Terms are significant,12-16,4-8,4-8,and 8-12 d,respectively,for the period 1961-2007.These quantitative results provide a scientific base for climate change adaptation,especially in terms of agricultural planning and energy-saving management throughout a year.
QIAN ChengYAN ZhongWeiFU CongBin
关键词:二十四节气全球变暖平均气温气象观测站半干旱地区
条件非线性最优扰动方法在陆面过程模式参数优化中的扩展应用初探被引量:9
2011年
本文旨在探讨条件非线性最优扰动(CNOP)方法在陆面过程模式的参数优化工作方面的扩展应用.使用通用陆面模式(CoLM)和CEOP地面基准站——吉林通榆站退化草地2006年生长季的资料,针对土壤颜色、砂土比例和叶面积指数等关键模式参数,使用感热通量、潜热通量和浅层土壤温湿度作为检测变量,设计了单参数和多参数优化试验.结果表明,CONP扩展方法得到的优化参数提高了CoLM对检测变量的模拟能力,并且多参数的优化结果明显优于单参数的优化结果,在模式模拟偏差较大的土壤湿度方面改进尤为显著,此外,使用了差异进化算法(DE)作为优化算法的CNOP扩展方法还具有编程简单,可移植强,收敛速度快等特点,使得CNOP扩展方法在陆面过程模式参数优化工作方面表现出极强的应用和发展潜力.
李红祺郭维栋孙国栋张耀存
关键词:陆面过程模式参数优化
Change of precipitation intensity spectra at different spatial scales under warming conditions被引量:10
2013年
The long-term change of the whole spectra of precipitation intensity in China is examined using observed daily data recorded at 477 surface stations for the period from 1961 to 2008. The results show a spatially coherent decrease of trace precipitation despite different reduction magnitudes among the regions. For measurable precipitation, significant regional and seasonal characteristics are observed. In autumn, the whole measurable precipitation decreased over Eastern China (east of 98°E). In summer and winter, a significant increase of heavy precipitation and decrease of light precipitation are detected south of Eastern China. In Western China, measurable precipitation is found to have increased in all four seasons. Composite analysis reveals a quasi-linear relationship between increasing surface temperature and precipitation on a global scale. The responses of precipitation at different intensities to the increased temperature are distinct, with a significant spectra-shifting from light to heavy precipitation. Compared with precipitation over the ocean, the amplification of heavy precipitation over land is relatively less, most likely constrained by the limited water supply. The response of regional precipitation to global warming shows greater uncertainties compared with those on the global scale, perhaps due to interference by more complex topography and land cover, as well as human activities, among other factors.
WU FuTingFU CongBin
关键词:降水强度气候变暖表面温度
Trends in Temperature Extremes in Association with Weather-Intraseasonal Fluctuations in Eastern China被引量:13
2011年
Trends in the frequencies of four temperature extremes (the occurrence of warm days, cold days, warm nights and cold nights) with respect to a modulated annual cycle (MAC), and those associated exclusively with weather-intraseasonal fluctuations (WIF) in eastern China were investigated based on an updated homogenized daily maximum and minimum temperature dataset for 1960–2008. The Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (EEMD) method was used to isolate the WIF, MAC, and longer-term components from the temperature series. The annual, winter and summer occurrences of warm (cold) nights were found to have increased (decreased) significantly almost everywhere, while those of warm (cold) days have increased (decreased) in northern China (north of 40°N). However, the four temperature extremes associated exclusively with WIF for winter have decreased almost everywhere, while those for summer have decreased in the north but increased in the south. These characteristics agree with changes in the amplitude of WIF. In particular, winter WIF of maximum temperature tended to weaken almost everywhere, especially in eastern coastal areas (by 10%–20%); summer WIF tended to intensify in southern China by 10%–20%. It is notable that in northern China, the occurrence of warm days has increased, even where that associated with WIF has decreased significantly. This suggests that the recent increasing frequency of warm extremes is due to a considerable rise in the mean temperature level, which surpasses the effect of the weakening weather fluctuations in northern China.
钱诚严中伟符淙斌涂锴
关键词:经验模式分解
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