近年来,我国采取了一系列措施来改善铅的人为循环流动.了解铅流状况的改变,既可检验这些举措的有效性,又可全面把握我国铅流现状,为进一步资源环境改善提供定量参考.本研究采用＂stock and flows（STAF）＂物流分析法,分析了我国2010年铅流现状,在此基础上,选取铅矿石消耗量、环境释放量、资源效率、环境效率、循环率等指标,结合已有2000年研究结果,对比分析了2000-2010年的改变.结果表明,该10年间我国铅资源效率和环境效率分别提高到2000年的1.3倍和1.07倍,同时,铅循环率也提高了29.57%.然而,由于我国铅金属生产和消费规模继续扩大,使得铅矿消耗和铅环境释放量仍呈增大趋势,并较2000年分别提高了1.97和2.57倍,表明我国铅流改善仍任重道远.
Substance flow analysis was applied to analyzing the lead emissions in 2010. It turns out that in 2010, for every 1 kg of lead consumed, 0.48 kg lead is lost into the environment. The emissions in 2010 were estimated to be 1.89×10^6 t, which were mainly from use （39.20%） and waste management＆recycling （33.13%）. The accumulative lead in 1960-2010 from the anthropogenic flow was estimated and the results show that the total accumulative lead in this period amounted to 19.54×10^6 t, which was equivalent to 14.26 kg and 2.04 g/m^2 at the present population and territory.
Knowledge of the changes in a material’s function, form, and location during the transfer and transformation of materials to generate human services will improve our understanding of how humanity interacts with the environment and of how services are formed by human activities. We compared lead’s anthropogenic and biogeochemical cycles and found that the services, pathways, and changes in form requiring the most attention. We traced lead through its life cycle and identified the changes in its functions, forms, and locations by examining technology and engineering information. Lead ore and scrap were the two main anthropogenic sources of lead. When lead provides human services, its main functions included the storage and delivery of electricity, anti-corrosion treatments, and radiation protection; the main forms of lead in these products were Pb, PbO2 and PbSO4, and the main location changed from lithosphere in central China to regions in eastern China.
The risk assessment right from the source of emissions can effectively guide the pollution control. A model was established, consisting of four part： source estimation, environmental fate analysis, exposure analysis and risk assessment. The human health risk, ecological risk and total risk of lead emissions were assessed. The factors were estimated to indicate the environmental decrease and exposure probability. Of all the 1887 t emissions in China in 2010（quantified in the previous work）, it is turned out 1.3 t reached human bodies（0.9 mg/ca）, and 2.7 t reached the ecosystem. Lead mainly came from the Use stage for the source while lead causing risk mainly came from the Waste Management Recycling and Production stages. As for chemical forms, PbO contributed most to the human health risk and PbSO_4 contributed most to the ecological risk. PbSO_4, PbO and Pb altogether contributed 71% to the total risk, indicating these three chemicals should be taken priority for the risk management.
