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国家自然科学基金(40825008)

作品数:9 被引量:88H指数:6
相关作者:刘晓东程志刚范广洲白爱娟郭庆春更多>>
相关机构:中国科学院中国科学院研究生院成都信息工程大学更多>>
发文基金:国家自然科学基金国家重点基础研究发展计划高原大气与环境四川省重点实验室开放基金更多>>
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Spectral dispersion of cloud droplet size distributions and radar threshold reflectivity for drizzle被引量:1
2010年
From first principles, we find that the radar threshold reflectivity between nonprecipitating clouds and precipitating clouds is strongly related to not only the cloud droplet number concentration but also the spectral dispersion of cloud droplet size distributions. The further investigation indicates that the threshold value is an increasing function of spectral dispersion and cloud droplet number concentration. These results may improve our understanding of the cloud-precipitation interaction and the aerosol indirect effect.
解小宁刘晓东
关键词:雷达反射率云滴谱小雨
Modeling the climate effects of different subregional uplifts within the Himalaya-Tibetan Plateau on Asian summer monsoon evolution被引量:14
2012年
Considering the different uplifting time of different subregions of the Himalaya-Tibetan Plateau(TP),a series of numerical simulations have been conducted with the Community Atmosphere Model(CAM4) developed at the National Center for Atmospheric Research to explore the effects of the phased tectonic uplift of the Himalaya-TP on the evolution of Asian summer monsoons.The results show that the uplifts of the Himalaya and northern TP significantly affect the evolutions of South Asian summer monsoon and northern East Asian summer monsoon respectively.That is,the tectonic uplift of the Himalaya intensifies the South Asian summer monsoon circulation and increases the precipitation in South Asia,whereas the uplift of the northern TP intensifies the northern East Asian summer monsoon circulation and increases the precipitation in northern East Asia.Compared with previous simulations,current comparative analyses of modeling results for different subregional uplifts within the Himalaya-TP help deepen our understanding of the evolutionary history of Asian monsoons.
ZHANG Ran 1,JIANG DaBang 1,2,3,LIU XiaoDong 4 & TIAN ZhiPing 2,5 1 Climate Change Research Center,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100029,China
关键词:青藏高原隆升亚洲季风高原气候夏季季风
21世纪青藏高原气候时空变化评估被引量:29
2011年
在对比分析IPCC第4次评估报告所采用的23个气候模式输出、ERA40再分析气温资料和GPCP降水资料的基础上,运用选取的11个模式输出资料,以集合平均的方法,结合动力降尺度数据,分析中等排放情景下21世纪青藏高原气温和降水变化的时空分布。11个模式集合结果表明:相对于2008年而言,21世纪中期青藏高原年均气温和降水变化幅度为1.98℃和0.06 mm/d,而21世纪末,增温幅度达到3.93℃,年平均降水率变幅为0.24mm/d。动力降尺度资料分析显示,未来100年高原气候总体预估增温趋势明显,有显著变湿的趋势,但降水变化的空间分布十分不均匀,且模拟的不确定性较大。
程志刚刘晓东范广洲白爱娟王炳赟
关键词:动力降尺度气候变化气温降水青藏高原
基于人工神经网络的黄河水质评价被引量:7
2013年
针对地表水环境质量问题,运用人工神经网络理论和方法,建立地表水环境质量评价的BP人工神经网络模型。并将训练样本进行归一化处理,同时利用RAND函数对训练样本进行插值保证神经网络充分学习。通过实例进行评价分析,说明用BP人工神经网络方法评价地表水环境质量是可行的。该模型具有很强的学习、联想和容错功能,其分析结果和过程都接近人脑的思维过程和分析方法,使得地表水环境质量评价结果的精度大大提高。
郭庆春赵雪茹
关键词:人工神经网络水质评价地表水溶解氧氨氮
青藏高原古高度重建方法研究进展被引量:4
2008年
青藏高原隆升对亚洲及全球气候变化有着深刻的影响,因而地质时期青藏高原古高度定量化恢复对于理解高原隆升历史、隆升机制及其环境效应都具有非常重要的意义。通过近十余年的发展,反演高原古高度方法有了很大的发展,这些方法包括气泡法、古植物学、稳定同位素和陆地宇宙核素方法等,这些研究为恢复古高度提供了新的思路和手段。综述并简要介绍了这些方法的基本原理,同时讨论了应用各种方法的局限性,希望能进一步促进我国在高原古高度恢复方面的研究。
张冉刘晓东安芷生
关键词:青藏高原
21世纪长江黄河源区径流量变化情势分析被引量:12
2010年
以长江、黄河源区为研究对象,应用大尺度半分布式水文模型(VIC),结合江河源区气象站多年实测温度、降水数据,检验了VIC模型的适用性。模型能较好模拟江河源区地表径流,其Nash系数和相关系数分别达到了0.8533和0.9302(长江源区),0.8892和0.9248(黄河源区)。基于率定后的VIC模型,运用高分辨率的动力降尺度气象强迫资料,分析了未来气候变化情景下,江河源区径流量可能变化趋势。结果表明,未来30~50a,长江、黄河源区年均径流量将分别增加8.58%、9.19%;未来80~100a,长江、黄河源区年均径流量将分别增加17.16%、7.21%。相对于2030~2049年而言,尽管年均降水增加0.06mm/d,但是黄河源区2080~2099年径流量却将减少1.98%。运用植被情景假设及2030~2049年动力降尺度气象资料,模拟分析了植被变化对江河源区地表径流的影响。从4种地表覆被情景假设可以看出,林地地表覆被产生径流量最小,裸地最大。
程志刚刘晓东范广洲白爱娟
关键词:气候变化径流量
CLM3-simulated soil moisture in East Asia and its possible response to global warming during 1979 through 2003被引量:2
2009年
Hydrological processes related to soil moisture play an important role in determining regional and global climate. In this study, using a state-of-art Community Land Model (CLM) developed by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), we simulated soil moisture in East Asia and its possible response to global warming through a long off-line experiment under 0.5° (longitude) × 0.5° (latitude) resolution and real atmospheric forcing of the National Center for Environmental Protection/ Department of Energy (NCEP/DOE) reanalysis during 1979 through 2003. The 25-year simulation is examined and compared with limited observations. The results can be summarized as follows: (1) Soil moisture takes time in response to the atmospheric forcing. The equilibration time depends on the depth of the soil and is as much as 20 years in deep layers (>1.5 m); (2) In comparison with observations, the CLM reasonably reproduces the seasonal and inter-annual variability, spatial structure, and vertical pattern of soil moisture in East Asia; (3) The soil tends to be drier in the past 25 years in northeastern Asia-including northern China north of 30°N-while wetter in the southern China and the Tibetan Plateau, especially in summer. Our analysis shows that the regional drying is attributed to increase of the land-surface evaporation induced by global warming.
ChuanLi DuXiaoDong LiuWanLi Wu
人工神经网络在大气污染预测中的应用研究被引量:11
2012年
以陕西省宝鸡市空气污染指数的预测预报为例,引入人工神经网络的理论和方法,对其进行模拟分析,建立了基于BP神经网络的空气污染指数非线性时间序列预报模型。模型仿真性能检验和精确度检验表明:建立的模型准确度高,适应性强,可直接用于宝鸡市日空气污染指数的预报。
郭庆春何振芳李力
关键词:空气污染指数神经网络大气污染
Effect of precession on the Asian summer monsoon evolution:A systematic review被引量:8
2009年
Geological climatic records and model simulations on the Asian summer monsoon climate change induced by insolation forcing of the Earth's precession are systematically reviewed in this paper.The presentation of the questions on the mechanism of the Asian monsoon evolution at the precession band,currently existing debates and future research directions are discussed.Since the early 1980s,more and more observed evidence and simulated results,especially the absolute-dated stalagmite records and orbital-scale transient model runs in the last few years,have indicated that the quasi-20ka period in the Quaternary monsoon climate change is caused by precession.However,debates still exist on the dynamic mechanism how precession affects the Asian monsoon.The "zero phase" hypothesis says that the Asian monsoon is merely controlled by summer insolation in the Northern Hemisphere(NH) while the "latent heat" hypothesis emphasizes the dominant effect of latent heat transport from the Southern Hemisphere(SH) besides the role of the northern insolation.The two hypotheses have separately been supported by some evidence.Although we are cognizant of the importance of northern solar radiation and the remote effect of southern insolation,it has still a long way to go before comprehensively understanding the evolutionary mechanism of the Asian monsoon.In view of the problems existing in present researches of monsoon-dominated climate change at the precession scale,we propose that studies on the environmental significance of geological monsoon proxies,feedback processes in the long-term transient simulations and intercomparisons between observations and modeling results should be strengthened in the future.
LIU XiaoDongSHI ZhengGuo
关键词:夏季季风
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