In the present paper, a comparison of the performance between moving cutting data-rescaled range analysis(MCR/S) and moving cutting data-rescaled variance analysis(MC-V/S) is made. The results clearly indicate that the operating efficiency of the MC-R/S algorithm is higher than that of the MC-V/S algorithm. In our numerical test, the computer time consumed by MC-V/S is approximately 25 times that by MC-R/S for an identical window size in artificial data. Except for the difference in operating efficiency, there are no significant differences in performance between MC-R/S and MC-V/S for the abrupt dynamic change detection. MC-R/S and MC-V/S both display some degree of anti-noise ability. However, it is important to consider the influences of strong noise on the detection results of MC-R/S and MC-V/S in practical application processes.
The characteristics of haze days and the climatic background are analyzed by using daily observations of haze,precipitation,mean and maximum wind speed of 664 meteorological stations for the period of 1961–2012.The results show that haze days occur significantly more often in eastern China than in western China.The annual number of haze days is 5–30 d in most parts of central-eastern China,with some areas experiencing more than 30 d,while less than 5 d are averagely occurring in western China.Haze days are mainly concentrated in the winter half-year,with most in winter,followed by autumn,spring,and then summer.Nearly 20%of annual haze days are experienced in December.The haze days in central-eastern China in the winter half-year have a significant increasing trend of 1.7 d per decade during 1961–2012.There were great increases in haze days in the 1960s,1970s and the beginning of the 21st century.There was also significant abrupt changes of haze days in the early 1970s and 2000s.From 1961 to 2012,haze days in the winter half-year increased in South China,the middle-lower reaches of the Yangtze River,and North China,but decreased in Northeast China,eastern Northwest China and eastern Southwest China.The number of persistent haze is rising.The Longer the haze,the greater the proportion to the number persistent haze.Certain climatic conditions exacerbated the occurrence of haze.The correlation coefficient between haze days and precipitation days in the winter half-year is mainly negative in central-eastern China.The precipitation days show a decreasing trend in most parts of China,with a rate of around–4.0 d per decade in central-eastern China,which reduces the sedimentation capacity of atmospheric pollutants.During the period of 1961–2012,the correlation coefficients between haze days and mean wind speed and strong wind days are mainly negative in central-eastern China,while there exists positive correlation between haze days and breeze days in the winter half-year.The mean wind speed and strong wind days
大气水分循环过程耦合了降水、蒸发、水汽输送等多个环节.本文利用ERA-Interim与MERRA再分析资料,研究了中国1979—2012年夏季大气水分循环的时空变化特征及其对全球气候变化的响应,并对两套再分析资料在中国地区的适用性进行了评估.结果表明:1)中国夏季降水、蒸发、可降水量均自东南沿海地区向西北内陆递减;降水与蒸发相互联系、相互制约,由于不同地区下垫面物理条件的差异,它们之间同时存在正、负反馈的影响机制,可降水量主要集中在地面至700 h Pa高度,约占总量的75%;2)近34年大气水分循环显著变化的区域主要集中在西部和东北地区,西部内陆地区可降水量显著增加,北方大部分地区纬向水汽输送通量显著减小,西北北部地区经向水汽输送通量显著增大,蒸发量与水汽输送的气候变化可能是造成可降水量增加的主要原因;3)Interim与MERRA资料对降水量时空变化特征的再现能力要优于蒸发量,此外,它们对降水与蒸发气候变化趋势的模拟结果差别较大,使用时应该慎重;两套资料对可降水量与水汽输送通量的时空变化特征以及气候变化趋势的模拟比较一致,可信度较高;4)Interim资料对西南、东南以及东北区域夏季水循环均有较好的描述能力;而MERRA资料更适用于研究西南和西北区域的水汽收支情况.
