In order to study the durability behavior of marine reinforced concrete structure suffering from chloride attack,the structural service life is assumed to be divided into three critical stages,which can be characterized by steel corrosion and cover cracking.For each stage,a calculated model used to predict the lifetime is developed.Based on the definition of durability limit state,a probabilistic lifetime model and its time-dependent reliability analytical method are proposed considering the random natures of influencing factors.Then,the probabilistic lifetime prediction models are applied to a bridge pier located in the Hangzhou Bay with Monte Carlo simulation.It is found that the time to corrosion initiation t0 follows a lognormal distribution,while that the time from corrosion initiation to cover cracking t1 and the time for crack to develop from hairline crack to a limit crack width t2 can be described by Weibull distributions.With the permitted failure probability of 5.0%,it is also observed that the structural durability lifetime mainly depends on the durability life t0 and that the percentage of participation of the life t0 to the total service life grows from 61.5% to 83.6% when the cover thickness increases from 40 mm to 80 mm.Therefore,for any part of the marine RC bridge,the lifetime predictions and maintenance efforts should also be directed toward controlling the stage of corrosion initiation induced by chloride ion.
