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作品数:8 被引量:157H指数:6
相关作者:胡娅敏丁一汇廖菲甘薇薇吕俊梅更多>>
相关机构:广东省气候中心中国气象局广州热带海洋气象研究所中国气象局国家气候中心更多>>
发文基金:国家自然科学基金云南省社会发展科技计划公益性行业(气象)科研专项更多>>
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2000年以来江淮梅雨带北移的可能成因分析被引量:26
2009年
2000年以来长江中下游地区梅雨量偏少年出现的频率大大增加,梅雨量进入一个相对偏少的时期。观测资料分析表明,2000—2005年江淮梅雨带的位置较1971—1999年向北移动了2个纬距,淮河流域降水增加了20%。采用1971—2005年NCEP/NCAR再分析资料,从高层风场、中层位势高度场、低层相对涡度、垂直速度、整层视热源Q1和视水汽汇Q2等角度分析了近6年大气环流的异常,进一步研究得到:西太平洋副热带高压脊位置的北移、东亚夏季风的加强以及冷空气的减弱,可能是导致2000—2005年梅雨带位置北移的原因。
胡娅敏丁一汇
关键词:梅雨带北移大气环流副热带高压冷空气
An improvement on summer regional climate simulation over East China: Importance of data assimilation of soil moisture被引量:13
2010年
The Newtonian relaxation is used to assimilate data from the Second Global Soil Wetness Project (GSWP2) into the initial field for soil moisture in a regional climate model (i.e., BCC_RegCM 1.0, hereinafter called RegCM). The results show that different nudging parameters can improve the simulation of the air temperature and the precipitation to some extent in summertime season over East China. When the nudging intensity is 0.5 and nudging duration is 5 days, the result is desirable. Introducing the data assimilation of soil moisture into RegCM, the amelioration is not only in the spatial distribution pattern but also in the magnitude of the temperature and the precipitation. More specifically, the assimilation experiments have corrected the systematical cold bias of the air temperature and the precipitation on the low side, which is much closer to the observation compared with the control experiment. On the whole, the assimilation experiments shed light on the fact that the simulated bias in the original RegCM may be affected by the description of soil moisture in the land surface process. Therefore, the effect of soil moisture in RegCM should be paid more attention in the future.
HU YaMin1,2,3, DING YiHui4 & LIAO Fei2 1 Institute of Tropical and Marine Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration, Guangzhou 510080, China
关键词:NEWTONIANRELAXATIONASSIMILATION
Simulation of 1991-2005 Meiyu seasons in the Yangtze-Huaihe region using BCC_RegCM 1.0被引量:1
2010年
By using BCC_RegCM 1.0 (RegCM for short) from Beijing Climate Center (BCC), China Meteorological Administration (CMA), the Meiyu season characters over the Yangtze-Huaihe region during 1991-2005 are simulated. The major conclusions of this study may be summarized as the following: (1) RegCM can reproduce the interannual variation and the spatial distribution of the summertime precipitation and temperature in the Yangtze-Huaihe region. (2) By use of a generalized Meiyu criterion and in accordance with model-calculated precipitation and temperature, the Meiyu onset and ending date have been determined. Compared with the observation, RegCM can simulate the interannual variation of the Yangtze-Huaihe Meiyu with preferable capability for most of the normal Meiyu years (such as 1995, 1997, 2000, 2001, 2002 and 2004), especially for the rich Meiyu years of 1996, 1998 and 1999. (3) In terms of the average simulation for the recent 15 years, the timings of onset and ending of Meiyu occur on June 1 and July 13, respectively, which are earlier than the climatological observation. For duration, Meiyu persists for 32 d, 3 d shorter than the observation. The index of Meiyu intensity is 2.45, while the climatological one is 3.00. Therefore, RegCM is capable of simulating the climatological Meiyu duration and intensity, while the capability of simulating the onset and ending date of Meiyu still needs to be improved.
HU YaMin1,2,3& DING YiHui4 1 Institute of Tropical and Marine Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration, Guangzhou 510080, China
关键词:气候观测发病时间
Simulation of 1991-2005 Meiyu seasons in the Yangtze-Huaihe region using BCCRegCM 1.0
By using BCCegCM 1.0 (RegCM for short) from Beijing Climate Center (BCC), China Meteorological Administration ...
HU YaMin1,2 DING YiHui3 1 Guangdong Climate Center, Guangzhou 510080, China
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热带大气MJO活动异常对2009~2010年云南极端干旱的影响被引量:58
2012年
2009~2010年云南发生了历史罕见的秋冬春连旱,本文从热带大气季节内振荡(Madden Julian Oscillation,简称MJO)的持续性异常入手,分析了这次极端干旱事件发生的物理原因.结果表明,2009年夏季至2010年春季云南降水的持续性偏少是极端干旱发生的直接原因.进一步的分析发现,6~10月热带中东印度洋MJO指数表现出持续正的变化特征,相应地,孟加拉湾地区的对流活动持续偏弱,并在热带印度洋地区激发出异常的下沉气流,使得南亚地区的亚洲季风垂直环流圈异常减弱,热带印度洋向云南的水汽输送异常减少,从而导致2009年夏季至秋季云南的降水持续偏少,秋季干旱开始形成.2009/2010年冬季热带中东印度洋MJO指数仍然维持持续正的状态,亦即冬季孟加拉湾的对流活动仍然持续偏弱.与MJO的持续性正异常相关的大气环流异常型表现为,南亚经青藏高原至西南地区西部有一异常高压脊存在,云南处于高压脊中的垂直下沉气流控制之下;与此同时,冬季南支槽强度偏弱,不利于水汽从孟加拉湾向云南输送,云南冬季降水持续偏少,干旱加剧.因此,热带大气MJO活动的持续性异常是2009~2010年云南极端干旱事件发生的重要原因之一.
吕俊梅琚建华任菊章甘薇薇
关键词:MJO
土壤湿度资料同化对中国东部夏季区域气候模拟的改进被引量:15
2009年
采用牛顿张弛同化法把GSWP2资料同化进区域气候模式BCC_RegCM1.0(简称RegCM)中土壤湿度初始场,结果得到采用不同张弛参数对土壤湿度资料进行同化,均能不同程度的改进气温和降水的模拟,当张弛强度取0.5和张弛时间为5d时,对中国东部地区气温和降水模拟的改进效果较好.加入土壤湿度资料同化后,不仅对中国东部地区的降水和气温的空间分布型有所改进,而且修正了控制试验中地表气温的系统性冷偏差以及中国东部地区的降水偏少,使地表气温和降水的模拟值较控制试验结果接近于观测值,这说明RegCM对地面气温的偏低和降水量的偏少,可能与陆面过程中的土壤湿度处理有较大的关系,今后应注重RegCM中土壤湿度的作用.
胡娅敏丁一汇廖菲
关键词:土壤湿度资料同化区域气候模拟
The influence of the Madden-Julian Oscillation activity anomalies on Yunnan's extreme drought of 2009-2010被引量:25
2012年
Yunnan Province of China suffered a record-breaking drought that persisted from autumn 2009 into spring 2010. The present study examined the physical causes of this extreme drought event in terms of persistent anomalies of intraseasonal oscillation in the tropical atmosphere (the Madden-Julian Oscillation hereafter the MJO). The results show that the occurrence of severe drought in Yunnan was caused directly by deficient rainfall lasting from the summer of 2009 to the spring of 2010. Further exploration reveals a persistent positive variation of MJO index 1 from June to October. Accordingly, the convective activity over the Bay of Bengal (BOB) weakened continuously, and then an anomalous descending airflow was induced over the tropical Indian Ocean, resulted in the anomalous weakening of vertical Asian monsoon circulation in South Asia. Consequently, the transport of water vapor from the tropical Indian Ocean to Yunnan decreased abnormally, leading to persistent below-normal rainfall over Yunnan from summer to autumn in 2009. As a result, a severe drought began to appear in autumn. In the winter of 2009-2010, MJO index 1 remained persistently positive, indicating the continuous weakening of convective activity over the BOB. The atmospheric circulation associated with the persistent positive anomalies in the MJO also demonstrated anomalous patterns. Specifically, there was an anomalous high-pressure ridge stretching from South Asia through the Tibetan Plateau and into the western part of southwestern China. This indicates that the atmospheric circulation over Yunnan was dominated by vertical descending airflow in the high-pressure ridge. Simultaneously, the India-Burma trough was weakened, which resulted in unfavorable conditions for the transport of water vapor from the BOB to Yunnan, causing the observed persistent deficient precipitation in winter and the subsequently intensified drought. Therefore, the persistent anomalies in MJO activity in the tropical atmosphere played an important role in the occurrence of
LU JunMeiJU JianHuaREN JuZhangGAN WeiWei
关键词:大气季节内振荡干旱事件大气环流异常热带印度洋孟加拉湾
BCC_RegCM 1.0对1991~2005年江淮梅雨季的数值模拟被引量:3
2010年
采用中国气象局国家气候中心提供的区域气候模式BCC_RegCM1.0(RegCM)模拟1991~2005年江淮梅雨季,得到如下结论:(1)RegCM能较好地模拟出夏季温度和降水的年际变化和空间分布型;(2)参照"广义梅雨评定标准",计算RegCM的降水和温度得到近15年江淮梅雨的爆发日和结束日,与观测相比,RegCM能模拟出近15年江淮梅雨的年际变化,对大部分正常梅雨年模拟较好,尤其是能模拟出1996,1998和1999年的强梅雨;(3)就15年平均状态而言,RegCM模拟得到的入梅日和出梅日分别为6月1日和7月13日,较采用广义梅雨标准计算的观测值分别提前了12和13d;梅雨长度为32d,较观测缩短了3d;梅雨强度为2.45,而观测值为3.00.从而可见,RegCM能较好地描述气候态的江淮梅雨持续期及强度,但对入梅日和出梅日这两个奇异点的模拟仍有待改进.
胡娅敏丁一汇
关键词:区域气候模式江淮梅雨入梅
近52年江淮梅雨的降水分型被引量:26
2010年
根据1954—2005年江淮地区梅雨期间的逐日降水资料,采用旋转经验正交函数分解法(REOF)分析得到,江淮梅雨具有江淮型、江南型、淮河型和两湖型4种优势降水型,都存在着6—7年和准20年的周期振荡,20世纪90年代后表现为江南梅雨型减少、而淮河梅雨型增加的趋势。进一步采用系统聚类法对江淮梅雨期逐年降水场进行客观分型得到,江淮梅雨分为全流域丰梅型、全流域枯梅型、南丰北枯型、北丰南枯型和南北丰中间枯型共5种雨型。全流域丰梅型具有入梅早、出梅晚、梅雨期长、梅雨量大和梅雨强的特点,而全流域枯梅型正好与之相反。雨带型中,以南北(北)丰中间(南)枯型入梅早(晚),南(北)丰北(南)枯型出梅早(晚),这些特征与雨带的地理位置相对应。江淮各梅雨型均具有明显的年代际变化,20世纪90年代主要对应全流域丰梅型和南丰北枯型,而2000年以后以全流域枯梅型、北丰南枯型和南北丰中间枯型为主。近52年中20世纪60年代(90年代)梅雨期最短(长)、梅雨量最少(多)、梅雨强度最弱(强)。最后,从南亚高压位置、高空东、西风急流、西太平洋副热带高压和阻塞高压的位置及维持、垂直速度、季风气流的水汽输送6个方面对比了不同梅雨降水型所对应的大气环流特征及主要差异。
胡娅敏丁一汇廖菲
关键词:江淮梅雨聚类分析
热带大气MJO活动异常对2009~2010年云南极端干旱的影响
<正>2009年秋季开始至2010年春季,云南发生自有气象记录以来最严重的秋冬春连旱,全省综合气象干旱重现期为80年以上一遇,其中滇中、滇东、滇西东部的大部地区为100年以上一遇。
吕俊梅琚建华任菊章甘薇薇
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