Due to the increasing requirement for high-level weather and climate forecasting accuracy,it is necessary to exploit a strategy for model error correction while developing numerical modeling and data assimilation techniques.This study classifies the correction strategies according to the types of forecast errors,and reviews recent studies on these correction strategies.Among others,the analogue-dynamical method has been developed in China,which combines statistical methods with the dynamical model,corrects model errors based on analogue information,and effectively utilizes historical data in dynamical forecasts.In this study,the fundamental principles and technical solutions of the analogue-dynamical method and associated development history for forecasts on different timescales are introduced.It is shown that this method can effectively improve medium- and extended-range forecasts,monthly-average circulation forecast,and short-term climate prediction.As an innovative technique independently developed in China,the analoguedynamical method plays an important role in both weather forecast and climate prediction,and has potential applications in wider fields.
By assuming constant winter wheat varieties and agricultural practices in China,the influence of climate change on winter wheat is simulated using the corrected future climate projections under SRES A2 and AlB scenarios from 2012 to 2100,respectively.The results indicate that the growth of winter wheat would be strongly influenced by climate change in future.The average flowering and maturity dates of winter wheat would advance by 26 and 27 days under scenario A2,and by 23 and 24 days respectively under scenario A1B from 2012 to 2100.The simulated potential productivity of winter wheat shows a decrease of 14.3%and 12.5%for scenarios A2 and A1B respectively without the fertilization effect of CO_2,while an increase of 1.3%and 0.6%with the fertilization effect of CO_2.Additionally,for northern China, the simulated potential productivity would markedly decrease under both scenarios,independent with the fertilization effect of CO_2,which indicates that the current planted winter wheat would be more vulnerable than that in southern China.The most likely reason is the current winter wheat varieties in northern China are winter varieties or strong winter varieties,which need some days of low temperature for dormancy.While in southern China,the winter wheat is spring or half winter varieties and can grow slowly during winter,thus,they would be affected slightly when winter temperature increases.The results of this study may have important implications for adaptation measures.
Although the Tibetan Plateau is widely thought as a potential dust source to the atmosphere over East Asia,little is known about the temporal changes of Tibetan dust activities and Tibetan dust source strength.In this study,we address these two issues by analyzing dust storm frequencies and aerosol index through remote sensing data and by means of numerical simulation.The findings indicate that monthly dust profiles over the Tibetan Plateau vary significantly with time.Near the surface,dust concentration increases from October,reaches its maximum in February March,and then decreases.In the middle to upper troposphere,dust concentration increases from January,reaches its maximum in May June,and decreases thereafter.Although Tibetan dust sources are important contributors to dust in the atmosphere over the Tibetan Plateau,their contribution to dust in the troposphere over eastern China is weaker.The contribution of Tibetan dust sources to dust in the atmosphere over the Tibetan Plateau decreases sharply with height,from 69% at the surface,40% in the lower troposphere,and 5% in the middle troposphere.Furthermore,the contribution shows seasonal changes,with dust sources at the surface at approximately 80% between November and May and 45% between June and September;in the middle and upper troposphere,dust sources are between 21% from February to March and less than 5% in the other months.Overall,dust aerosols originating from the Tibetan Plateau contribute to less than 10% of dust in East Asia.
MAO RuiGONG DaoYiSHAO YaPingWU GuangJianBAO JingDong
A comparison of observations with 20 climate model simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase5(CMIP5) revealed that observed dryland expansion amounted to 2.61 × 106km2 during the 58 years from 1948 to 2005,which was four times higher than that in the simulations(0.55 × 106km2). Dryland expansion was accompanied by a decline in aridity index(AI)(drying trend) as a result of decreased precipitation and increased potential evapotranspiration across all dryland subtype areas in the observations, especially in the semi-arid and dry subhumid regions. However, the CMIP5multi-model ensemble(MME) average performed poorly with regard to the decreasing trends of AI and precipitation. By analyzing the factors controlling AI, we found that the overall bias of AI in the simulations, compared with observations, was largely due to limitations in the simulation of precipitation. The simulated precipitation over global drylands was substantially overestimated compared with observations across all subtype areas, and the spatial distribution of precipitation in the MME was largely inconsistent in the African Sahel, East Asia, and eastern Australia, where the semi-arid and dry subhumid regions were mainly located.
The temperature anomaly and dust concentrations recorded from central Antarctic ice core records display a strong negative correlation. The dust concentration recorded from an ice core in central Antarctica is 50–70 times higher during glacial periods than interglacial periods. This study investigated the impact of dust aerosol on glacial–interglacial climate, using a zonal energy balance model and dust concentration data from an Antarctica ice core. Two important efects of dust, the direct radiative efect and dust-albedo feedback, were considered. On the one hand, the direct radiative efect of dust significantly cooled the climate during the glacial period, with cooling during the last glacial maximum being as much as 2.05℃ in Antarctica. On the other hand, dust deposition onto the ice decreased the surface albedo over Antarctica, leading to increased absorption of solar radiation, inducing a positive feedback that warmed the region by as much as about 0.9℃ during the glacial period. However, cooling by the direct dust efect was found to be the controlling efect for the glacial climate and may be the major influence on the strong negative correlation between temperature and dust concentration during glacial periods.
Long-term observational data indicated a decreasing trend for the amount of autumn precipitation(i.e. 54.3 mm per decade) over Mid-Eastern China, especially after the 1980s(~ 5.6% per decade). To examine the cause of the decreasing trend, the mechanisms associated with the change of autumn precipitation were investigated from the perspective of water vapor transportation, atmospheric stability and cloud microphysics. Results show that the decrease of convective available potential energy(i.e. 12.81 J kg-1/ decade) and change of cloud microphysics, which were closely related to the increase of aerosol loading during the past twenty years, were the two primary factors responsible for the decrease of autumn precipitation. Our results showed that increased aerosol could enhance the atmospheric stability thus weaken the convection. Meanwhile, more aerosols also led to a significant decline of raindrop concentration and to a delay of raindrop formation because of smaller size of cloud droplets. Thus, increased aerosols produced by air pollution could be one of the major reasons for the decrease of autumn precipitation. Furthermore, we found that the aerosol effects on precipitation in autumn was more significant than in other seasons, partly due to relatively more stable synoptic systems in autumn. The impact of large-scale circulation dominant in autumn and the dynamic influence on precipitation was more important than the thermodynamic activity.
