[Objective] To establish the comprehensive evaluation index system of public green area per capita as a quantitative mean of measuring ecological city and livable city. [Method]The GM (1, 1) forecasting model was set up according to statistics of public green area per capita in Xi’an City during 1996 and 2005, on this basis, the development trend of green area per capita in Xi’an City until 2015 were analyzed in case of no any changing factors or conditions. [Result]Grey forecasting model was established as, (t = 0, 1, …, n); model parameters as a = - 0.031 71, u = 4.139 17. After residual error test and posterior-variance-test, the precision of this model is proved fairly good. [Conclusions]According to this model, public green area per capita in Xi’an City will achieve 7.66 m2 by 2015, which is still far away from the livable city index (16 m2 per capita) and should be paid more attention by the local government, the construction of urban green areas should be further enhanced, more vegetations should be cultivated so as to improve the urban green coverage ratio.
