Substance flow analysis was applied to analyzing the lead emissions in 2010. It turns out that in 2010, for every 1 kg of lead consumed, 0.48 kg lead is lost into the environment. The emissions in 2010 were estimated to be 1.89×10^6 t, which were mainly from use （39.20%） and waste management＆recycling （33.13%）. The accumulative lead in 1960-2010 from the anthropogenic flow was estimated and the results show that the total accumulative lead in this period amounted to 19.54×10^6 t, which was equivalent to 14.26 kg and 2.04 g/m^2 at the present population and territory.
Knowledge of the changes in a material’s function, form, and location during the transfer and transformation of materials to generate human services will improve our understanding of how humanity interacts with the environment and of how services are formed by human activities. We compared lead’s anthropogenic and biogeochemical cycles and found that the services, pathways, and changes in form requiring the most attention. We traced lead through its life cycle and identified the changes in its functions, forms, and locations by examining technology and engineering information. Lead ore and scrap were the two main anthropogenic sources of lead. When lead provides human services, its main functions included the storage and delivery of electricity, anti-corrosion treatments, and radiation protection; the main forms of lead in these products were Pb, PbO2 and PbSO4, and the main location changed from lithosphere in central China to regions in eastern China.
Information on lead redistribution and speciation changes in anthrosphere can help to analyze the whole lead cycle on the earth. Lead life cycle was traced based on the concepts of anthropogenic transfer and transformation. Lead transfer and the distribution of chemical species throughout the anthropogenic flow were identified in 2010 in China. The results show that 1.85 Mt lead ore was consumed(besides 1.287 Mt imported concentrated ore and 1.39 Mt lead scraps. After undergoing transformations, 3.53 Mt lead entered end services in chemical species of Pb, Pb O2 and PbSO4, altogether accounting for over 80% of the total lead products. Finally, 2.10 Mt ore was emitted into the environment in such species as PbSO4(26%), PbO(19%) and Pb(15%). Lead transfer begins in primary raw material sectors, and then transfers to manufacturing sectors. Lead provides services mainly in such industrial sectors as transportation, electrical power and buildings or construction.
The risk assessment right from the source of emissions can effectively guide the pollution control. A model was established, consisting of four part： source estimation, environmental fate analysis, exposure analysis and risk assessment. The human health risk, ecological risk and total risk of lead emissions were assessed. The factors were estimated to indicate the environmental decrease and exposure probability. Of all the 1887 t emissions in China in 2010（quantified in the previous work）, it is turned out 1.3 t reached human bodies（0.9 mg/ca）, and 2.7 t reached the ecosystem. Lead mainly came from the Use stage for the source while lead causing risk mainly came from the Waste Management Recycling and Production stages. As for chemical forms, PbO contributed most to the human health risk and PbSO_4 contributed most to the ecological risk. PbSO_4, PbO and Pb altogether contributed 71% to the total risk, indicating these three chemicals should be taken priority for the risk management.
